A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
